Write the risk plan on one page before you leave, and leave a copy with someone who is not coming. A plan that lives in your head is not a plan; it is an intention. The useful version has six rows — one per risk category — each with a likelihood, an impact, one mitigation, and the threshold at which you cancel or turn around.
The six categories
| Category | Typical risks | What usually goes wrong |
|---|---|---|
| Weather | Storm, wind, temperature drop, lightning | Underestimating the overnight low or wind |
| Terrain | Steep ground, scree, river crossings, navigation error | Route harder than the map suggested |
| Medical | Injury, illness, allergy, existing condition | No training, no evacuation plan |
| Wildlife | Bear, ticks, snakes, food attraction | Food stored improperly |
| Water | Flood, cold shock, dehydration | Drinking too little, crossing too late |
| Fire | Campfire escape, stove malfunction, burn ban | Fire in wind, no water nearby |
You do not need a long list. You need the two or three that are plausible for this trip, and a decision already made for each.
Rate likelihood and impact
Use a simple 1–3 scale rather than a matrix nobody fills in:
| Score | Likelihood | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unlikely this trip | Annoyance, no injury |
| 2 | Possible, seen it before | Trip cut short, minor injury |
| 3 | Likely or seasonal certainty | Evacuation, serious injury |
Multiply the two. Anything scoring 6 or above gets a written mitigation and a threshold, not a mental note. A 3×3 = 9 (lightning in an exposed ridge camp in July) is a go/no-go item; a 1×2 = 2 (a sprained ankle on a flat path) is not.
Mitigation: one action per risk
| Risk | Mitigation | Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Overnight low below bag rating | Warmer pad, extra layer, or different site | $0–120 |
| Afternoon storms on an exposed ridge | Start early, be off the ridge by 1 p.m. | $0 |
| River crossing above knee | Turn around; do not cross | $0 |
| Bear country | Canister or hang, cook 100 m downwind | $80–120 |
| No cell signal | Satellite messenger or check-in plan | $0–350 |
| Existing medical condition | Medication in date, written list, known exit route | $0 |
Mitigations should be actions, not attitudes. “Be careful” is not a mitigation; “cross before 10 a.m. or not at all” is.
Go / no-go criteria
Write the thresholds in advance, when you are calm:
- Cancel: forecast sustained wind over 35 mph, lightning during the planned hours, a fire ban plus a planned campfire, or a participant with a fever.
- Turn around: river above knee depth, visibility under 50 m, a member who cannot keep up with a 20-minute delay, or 30 minutes later than the planned turnaround time.
- Evacuate: any loss of consciousness, confusion, uncontrolled bleeding, or a bear that does not leave when challenged.
The value of writing these down is that decisions at altitude, in the rain, at 4 p.m., are worse than decisions at the kitchen table.
Emergency contacts and check-in
| Item | What to record |
|---|---|
| Emergency number | 911 in the US; 112 in Europe; satellite SOS via PLB |
| Ranger / land agency | District office number for the specific area |
| Home contact | One person who knows the plan and will call for help |
| Check-in time | A specific time, and the action if you miss it |
| Vehicle | Make, colour, plate, where parked |
Give the home contact a missed-check-in rule: if you have not messaged by 9 p.m. on the return day, they call the ranger district, not the police first.
The one-page document
Write these six lines and photograph it:
1. Where: trailhead, campsite, route
2. When: depart, camp, return
3. Who: names, phone numbers, vehicle
4. Risk: top 3 with mitigation and threshold
5. Contact: ranger district, home contact
6. If overdue: who calls whom, by when
Leave a copy in the car and send a photo to the home contact. It takes five minutes and it is the difference between a search that starts at dusk and one that starts the next morning.
Review after the trip
Spend ten minutes after every trip on three questions: which risk actually showed up, which mitigation worked, and which one was theatre. Drop the theatre. A plan that survives two or three trips becomes accurate, and accuracy is the only thing that makes it useful.
For hazard response once something happens, see the safety and survival guide; for what to carry, the first aid kit guide; for weather thresholds, the seasonal guide.
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